Wednesday 11 November 2015

A statistically bad chemo

I think the less I say about my last chemotherapy experience the better. Even the minimal information I do intend on parting with will probably gross you out. Basically, there were too many bodily fluids flowing from too many orifices. There are certain biological functions that, as an adult, one assumes they will always have under control. Ah, welcome to hospital! Here is a bag for your possessions, and another for your dignity. You’ll never get the latter back. The majority of the three days was spent playing trial and error with food sources in a vague attempt to keep said sources in my stomach. The error rate was high. Eventually, I stuck to minute sips of water. Despite my vomiting, shame, and general sentiment of doom and destruction, it was difficult to feel sorry for myself. The guy through the wall from me would heave for an hour straight. I, at least, threw up my pathetic meals rather quickly.

We are not entirely certain what lead to such an extreme decline in my chemotherapy tolerance. There were two variables, which I know is terrible science but I cannot help that now. I am beginning to think that biology is more of an art than a science. I will use this to justify my multiple variables. Anyway, where was I? Variables, right. I had begun a rigor-fever cycle a couple of days prior to this round of chemo. The fevers were never massive, they were deemed low-grade (which I believe means less than 38°C) by the medical staff. This time the rigors were blamed on the lymphoma despite my full blood count resembling an infection. I may have questioned the numbers. Twice. I still suspect I had an infection. The rigors do not matter much now, they have resolved, but a week ago they wore me out dreadfully. I was like super tired before chemo even began. 

The second variable involves the anti-emetics, which were altered slightly. They withheld the steroids. Initially I was happy with this move. I do not care much for the side effects steroids have to offer me, namely the pressing need for two a.m. snacks. Unfortunately, here I need to swallow what little pride I have left and confess: chemo is easier with steroids on-board. I feel better throughout and I feel better afterwards. Perhaps this may be deemed performance enhancing, but seeing as I am not a Russian track athlete, I don’t think anybody is going to mind too much. The day after my discharge I spent twenty hours horizontal, fighting, not really fatigue, but some haze between the real word and unconsciousness. Aside from a vague nausea and a relatively vocal stomach, I was not in any real discomfort, my eyes just refused to remain open and I could barely move. Next time I will take my dexamethasone like a good little girl and, perhaps, have days of production rather than destitution.

I have written more than I intended about my last chemo. It is a period I care to forget about. The topic I had actually intended on writing about is statistics. This could be an opportunity for you to stop reading. Things may get a little dark from here on, and the word ‘statistics’ has been used so, naturally, I expect some of you have drifted off to sleep. Also, I may mention particular statistics that you may not wish to know about. I kind of wish I did not know. I have stopped asking. So if you want to tag out right now I really don’t blame you. In fact, I admire you for lasting this long. Chocolate fish all round.

In July, after I received my unfavourable news, I was forced to think a bit. People talk about glasses and their perceived volume; is the glass half empty or half full? Most would probably decree that I was a glass-half-empty type of girl. To be honest I never really put much thought into the matter until I was, well, forced to. Upon reflection, I realised I was the type of girl who obtained, through certified channels, the exact capacity of the said receptacle, analysed the volume of the liquid within the receptacle using a traditional measuring cylinder, confirmed the result using a weight based technique (verifying the equipment's calibration status in the process), and had therefore discovered that the liquid occupies 47.25% (+/- 0.25%) of the volume of the receptacle; so indeed the glass is more than half empty. What I am trying to say is I like to know all the facts. And then I will overanalyse those facts.

In early August I became a little obsessed with statistics. I listened to the doctors, I read the textbooks, the papers, the review summaries; I knew the feedback cycles, the treatment regimes, the drug interactions. Then, sometime during my August-September diagnosis period, I developed a thought pattern, probably incorrectly, that medicine as a practise was entirely statistics. The case studies, clinical trials, meta-data analysis, create these numbers and percentages that are then used to treat patients. This is why my diagnosis process was so thorough: “It is very rare, Mrs Stocker, for you to have relapsed or refractory lymphoma given your clear scan in April.” It is like 8% rare or something like that. Not really rare, more statistically unlikely. I had a 92% chance of achieving remission and I blew it. Somebody needs to make up that 8% and once you find yourself in that minority group you cannot wish yourself out of it. As soon as you do that you are effectively wishing it on someone else. I would never wish this on anyone. For the 92% who made it through I am happy for you, but also a tiny bit jealous.

Having been blown away by stupid minority statistics, it is difficult to take the rest seriously or optimistically. Apparently 50% of patients are successfully harvested. Given my rapid relapse, that figure drops below the half mark; somewhere between 25 and 50%. So I had a 92% chance of remission and now, with some extremely positive thinking, it is around 40%. I began shying away from success stories, as if those whose treatment worked chipped into my 50%. It is not that I didn’t want other patients to be successful, I just didn’t want to hear about it. This is, of course, absurd logic. Each individual’s case is mutually exclusive, statistically not even medically. Medically each case is like an ENZA orchardist comparing apples with apples. I started to get cranky. What does ‘successfully harvested’ even mean? Do age, previous medical history, or charming personality effect these statistics at all? Is there a time frame? Is it six months? Three years? Five years? I would be happy with five years, hell, I would be happy with three. What happens if I am unsuccessful? Actually, I know the answer to that one: more treatment, worse statistics.

Eventually I became overwhelmed by statistics. 50% of salvage chemotherapy patients present with neutropenic fevers. 1% will die from these fevers. Less than 1% of patients fail to have a PICC line inserted. 99.9% of female salvage chemotherapy patients over 25 years of age become infertile. 50% of patients discuss fertility preservation options. 50% of patients who discuss fertility options actually take up the options. 10% go on to use the stored material. It is ‘unfortunate’ but not ‘unheard of’ to have needed multiple biopsies pre (or mid) diagnosis. At least they did not attempt to quantify that one. I have a scan coming up that will alter my statistics. Not the scan itself, but its results. Over the last couple of months I have stopped reading the statistics. I cannot change them and, although there is no point in dwelling, I did tend to fixate on them a bit. Ok a lot. Now, in order to make an informed treatment decision, I am required to read the science and statistics once again.

In here, this cancer institution, this day ward, this haematology ward, we are all unfortunate statistics. Not one person I have met has obeyed the textbook. Bone marrow transplant patients have had failed stem cell transplants. They were happy with the time they got. In the community the people one meets are usually survivors. Here, they are sufferers and complications. And there is always someone more worse off than me.

Some days I get hung up on the statistics. They are totally beyond my control and I think that is what bothers me; there is nothing I can do to change which side of the statistics I fall on. I get frustrated, sad, and angry. Other days I find it all oddly liberating. That life plan that always niggled at the back of my mind, a career, a house, some kids, a few cats, a handful of chickens (they would get along with the cats just fine), that plan doesn’t exist anymore. It is not even possible. I mean, Piper would never tolerate a chicken. During the days of liberation it feels like there are no expectations of me, like the only thing I have to worry about is being on the good side of statistics, the statistics I can participate in, but cannot control. It is odd to have these contrasting days. I would say that there is a strong correlation between how I am feeling physically and how I am feeling emotionally. So is the glass half empty or half full to me? Well, unless we are talking about a beer jar, I really do not give a damn.